A Way-Too-Early Prediction of the Chiefs 2026 Season

(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

The 2026 NFL schedule has been released for all 32 teams, giving a little bit of life to a dull moment in the offseason. The Chiefs have one of the hardest schedules in the league this year, which is not very helpful to the fact that they are coming off their worst season since 2012. We are still 4 months away from the start of the season, but that is not going to stop us NFL fans from making predictions. For the 2026 Chiefs, this is how I think the season is going to play out.

Week 1 vs Denver Broncos (MNF), W

The NFL Gods granted the Chiefs their worst-case-scenario to open the season. If Mahomes is ready by week 1, he will be faced with one of the most dangerous defenses in the entire league. If not, Justin Fields will have to step in (which would make this an immediate loss). I do, however, believe Mahomes will play in this game. I also believe that in week 1, teams are rarely their true selves. Denver is in a similar boat to Kansas City with Bo Nix having multiple surgeries as of late to fix his ankle injury that kept him out of the AFC Championship game. Both teams are trying to prove something this season, but I believe the Chiefs have vastly improved and have the edge due to this being a home game and the first game of Kenneth Walker’s Chiefs career. I think they will pull this one out by a sliver. 

Week 2 vs Indianapolis Colts (SNF), L

The Colts almost beat the Chiefs last year in the midst of both teams’ collapsing. I do think the Chiefs are the better team, but I also know that the Chiefs will likely take a few weeks to get to their usual selves (pre-2025 hopefully). The Colts always play the Chiefs hard, as Mahomes only has a 1-2 regular season record against them. Unfortunately, I do expect Mahomes to have some bumps early on this season and I think that will show up in this game.

Week 3 @ Miami Dolphins, W

The Dolphins are expected to be the worst team in the league this year, and it is hard not to see why. Kansas City should have no issue beating this team even if Mahomes is not himself.

Week 4 @ Las Vegas Raiders, W

The Raiders should be better than they were in 2025, but they aren’t ready to beat real teams yet (or they won’t be by week 4). This will likely be a close game, but I do not think the Chiefs will let it slip through their fingers.

Week 5 - Bye Week

An early bye may sound bad, as week 5 is most often the most undesirable week to have a bye. However, with Mahomes’ injury I actually think it will be beneficial for him to have one extra week early to get to his full power. By this point, if the Chiefs are 3-1, they should be able to play the rest of the season as usual with a healthy Mahomes. 

Week 6 vs Los Angeles Chargers, W

I think around this time is when we’ll see Mahomes start to play like his usual self, although the rest of the team might not have come together yet due to defensive youth and the new offensive coaching staff. The Chargers will be a good squad with the addition of new OC Mike McDaniel, but I do not expect vast improvement. The Chargers beat the Chiefs both times in 2025, but I think the Chiefs get their revenge at home coming off a bye in a close game.

Week 7 @ Seattle Seahawks (SNF), L

A perfect Sunday night matchup, as we will get to see new Chief Kenneth Walker return to his old team. Despite losing numerous players, I expect the defending champions to continue their defensive dominance and success. This will be a tough, low scoring game and I think the Chiefs fall short.

Week 8 @ Denver Broncos, L

Denver has become increasingly tough, and I would feel disingenuous if I predicted Kansas City to sweep them a year after going 6-11. I don’t think Denver will win 14 games again, but they should get one game over on the Chiefs. Playing at Mile High Stadium is always difficult, so this game feels like the one that Denver takes.

Week 9 vs New York Jets, W

Unless Geno Smith becomes the football messiah, the Jets should be roughly the same team as they have been. Complete bums. I don’t care how good their draft was, they are still the Jets for at least one more season. The Chiefs will blow them out.

Week 10 @ Atlanta Falcons, W

Atlanta isn’t an easy win, but I’m not confident enough in the Falcons to say they will be able to keep up with the Chiefs at this point of the season. The Falcons always have something wrong with them, and right now it seems to be whatever the heck they are calling a quarterback room. It won’t matter if the Falcons are quarterbacked by Tua Turndaballova or the other Tua, the Chiefs should be able to handle themselves in Atlanta.

Week 11 vs Arizona Cardinals, W

The Cardinals are a lock to be a bottom five team in the league next year, having Jacoby Brissett as their starting quarterback and a rookie HC who I am not sure is fully ready to be a head coach in the NFL. This could be similar to the Jets game. An easy win. 

Week 12 @ Buffalo Bills (TNF), L

The Chiefs losing to the Bills in the regular season is about as annual as a holiday. Thanksgiving night did not treat the Chiefs well in 2025, and I don’t think that will change in 2026. The Bills know how to beat the Chiefs when it doesn’t matter, and even though they will be playing with a new head coach, I think Josh Allen will still dominate the regular season as he always does. Congratulations Buffalo on winning your Super Bowl!

Week 13 @ Los Angeles Rams (TNF), L

The Rams true rival right now is the passage of time. Matthew Stafford could retire at any point, and with all of their offseason moves taken into account, this feels like an all-in year for the Rams. As unbelievable as this sounds, Mahomes has never played against Stafford since he got traded to LA (Chiefs vs Rams last occurred in 2022, but Stafford was injured). The Rams will likely take advantage of a young Chiefs defense and win this one.

Week 14 @ Cincinnati Bengals, W

The Bengals should be an improved team on paper, and I do believe they could return to playoff contention this season. However, I believe the Chiefs will bounce back from back to back losses and begin looking like their dynasty selves again. Perhaps this game will reignite the once great rivalry between these two teams? If we’re all being honest though, Joe Burrow only ever has a 50% chance of making it this far in one season. I wouldn't be surprised if this game ends up being an easy win if the Bengals once get afflicted with the injury bug. Either way, Chiefs will find a way to win this one.

Week 15 vs New England Patriots (MNF), W

The Patriots made the Super Bowl last year, but everyone and their mother seems to smell a regression incoming. This may not be as interesting of a game as it looks like now if the Patriots are negative by week 15. But even if they are just a little bit as good as they were in 2025, the Chiefs team I believe we will see this year should be able to win this game.

Week 16 vs San Francisco 49ers, W

Despite a perceived rivalry, Patrick Mahomes is undefeated against the 49ers. This late in the year, the 49ers will either be a practice squad or a legitimate contender. Either way, I believe the Chiefs win this game purely because Andy Reid and Mahomes own this franchise. 

Week 17 @ Los Angeles Chargers, L

This game likely will decide the winner of the AFC West (yeah Denver I don’t care about you). But similar to my Broncos argument, saying the Chiefs will sweep the Chargers after having not beaten them at all in 2025 feels strange. Whoever lost the first matchup will probably win this one. The Chargers are the home team here, so I am giving them an edge. If the Chargers do win the division, no NFL fan should be afraid. If there’s one thing close to the Bills’ annual Chiefs regular season win, it’s Justin Herbert imploding in the playoffs. Honestly I want the Chargers to win the division just to watch their hopes and dreams crushed as they lose to an inferior team in the first round. I can’t wait.

Week 18 vs Las Vegas Raiders, W

Going into this game at 10-6, I don’t think the Chiefs will have locked in anything to be able to rest their starters. They should be able to beat a Raiders team who is unlikely to be playing for anything here. 

Final Record: 11-6

I feel like this is a realistic expectation for the 2026 Chiefs. As much as I’d like to say the Chiefs are going to return to their 12+ win dominating fashion, I just don’t think that’s going to happen just yet. The schedule is too tough and the circumstances of Mahomes’ injury does give me pause for some of the harder games. However, I do think the Chiefs will be good this year. 11-6 should make the playoffs. Will it win the division? Let’s hope so.

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