Timberwolves Vs. Nuggets Playoff Preview

(AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)

For the 5th year in a row, we have playoff basketball in Minnesota, with the Timberwolves entering the postseason as the sixth seed in the Western Conference. There’s a bit of déjà vu in the air as Minnesota prepares to face the third-seeded Denver Nuggets for the 3rd time in the playoffs in just 4 years. Here’s what fans can expect to see in the Wolves vs. Nuggets series in round one.

What we know about the Nuggets

Denver is entering the playoffs as the hottest team in the league, coming in with a record of 13-1 in the last month of the regular season. Led by 3x MVP and 2026 MVP candidate Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets have really tightened up the screws and improved the mechanics of a team that was already playing dominantly. They have one of the best offenses in the league, which also includes Jamal Murray, who has stepped up this season and averaged 25 points per game. When Jokić and Murray were both in the lineup, the Nuggets torched opponents by 12.1 points per 100 possessions. But it’s not just the superstars making noise; Denver has 5 other guys who are averaging double digits this season.

The big concern is the health of this Nuggets squad. Denver's original starting 5 have barely been on the floor together this entire season. Starting forward Aaron Gordon missed a significant amount of time this season with continuous hamstring issues, as well as wings Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, and Peyton Watson having combined to miss 94 games. Peyton Watson, who has missed the last 5 games for the Nuggets, has already been ruled out in game one.

The weakness to Denver’s triumph recently has been their defense, as head coach David Adelman has faltered to find lineups consistently able to get stops. The Nuggets found themselves in the top five in the defensive efficiency rankings through the first month of the season and have since fallen all the way down to 21st. The big question will be, can Denver’s rotation consistently stay healthy and play well enough against the Wolves' offensive depth?

What we know about the Wolves

Minnesota has had a less than ideal way to end the regular season, with their star Anthony Edwards missing 11 of the Wolves' final 14 games, disqualifying him from any postseason awards despite what might’ve been his best season yet. They’ve won 6 of their last 11 games. However, what we’ve discovered is that the Wolves are one of the deepest offensive teams in the entire league, with 9 different players scoring 20+ points this season. They have many players who are capable of picking up the slack when starters might be struggling to find rhythm.

One of the many questions for the Wolves is how quickly will Minnesota get to a point where they have to rely on guys like Naz Reid, Bones Hyland, and Ayo Dosunmu to step up and have big games due to the starters' lack of success? The answer to this question and the big X-factor for Minnesota will rely on the consistency from the starting 5 throughout the series. Especially from players like Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randle, whom we’ve seen step up multiple times this year and help lead the Wolves to victory but at times have also fallen quiet.

Another big question the Wolves are facing is what version of Anthony Edwards are we getting? While we’ve seen the young star improve and eliminate future Hall of Fame players year after year in the playoffs, we’ve never seen him miss this much time in a season before, especially not this close to the playoffs. Will Edwards be able to pick up right where he left off and unleash this playoff version of him we’ve seen continuously throughout the years?

Keys to winning this series:

A big factor in this series will depend on how well each team can contain the opposing star player.

We can expect Denver to throw many different defensive adjustments at Edwards, similar to what we saw in the 2024 playoffs. Guys like Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, and Cameron Johnson are all possible matchups we can see against Edwards, but it’s also worth noting that most teams favor doubling the Ant-Man. Anthony Edwards' response to these double teams will be a huge deciding factor in the first 4 games. We’ve seen him struggle to pass out of the double team in games before, but this is something he’s also progressed at all season long. If he’s able to become a facilitator and set up other scorers, then this Wolves offense could be one of the scariest in the league this postseason.

As for the Timberwolves, the key isn’t going to be about stopping Jokic; it’s about containing and limiting him as much as possible. Minnesota must do whatever they can to make Jokic’s impact not only less efficient but less contagious. Nikola Jokic is a 3x MVP for a reason; not only does he dominate teams by himself, but he also has the ability to make his other teammates look like superstars with how he plays. I would expect Minnesota to throw a mixture of both Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert at Jokic depending on who’s on the floor. Even though Jokic could score against either of these two, it’ll come down to who can do the better job of containing and limiting him from setting up other scorers.

Another factor will be how Minnesota can stop Jamal Murray. In the 2024 series between these two teams, we saw Chris Finch throw continuous ball pressure and double teams at Murray, attacking him with both Jaden McDaniels and Alexander-Walker at the time. Could we possibly see this happen again? Potentially with Ayo Dosonmu this time? Doubling Murray would be a very high-risk, high-reward option, but it’s definitely something Chris Finch needs to consider.

Conclusion:

We have seen these two teams matchup against each other 28 times since 2023, including 2 playoff series. The outcome? An even 14-14 win split. This isn’t just another playoff series anymore; this has become an all-time NBA rivalry. We saw the Nuggets win the finals 3 years ago. Since then the Timberwolves have made back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances but fallen short. Will it finally be their turn to get over the hump and make it to the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history? It all starts Saturday at 2:30PM.

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