Time for Varland — But Don’t Count Out Hoffman

(AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

Bottom of the ninth. One out. Full count. A World Series hanging by a thread.

The Toronto Blue Jays are two outs away from a 4–3 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers. On the mound, Jeff Hoffman — in the middle of a season defined by inconsistency — goes to his slider. It hangs. Miguel Rojas doesn’t miss. He sends it 387 feet into the night, tying the game at four and turning certainty into chaos in an instant.

This season, that moment feels all too familiar.

Hoffman has struggled to lock down the ninth inning, with command issues and costly mistakes piling up in high-leverage spots. The Blue Jays have seen this story play out too many times, yet the role hasn’t changed. At some point, consistency has to outweigh loyalty — and that’s where Louis Varland comes in. If Toronto is serious about winning, it’s time to hand him the ball in the ninth.

Hoffman’s Struggles Are Becoming a Pattern

Hoffman has been unreliable — and that might be putting it lightly. Through 10.2 innings this season, he owns a 7.59 ERA and a 2.06 WHIP, numbers that immediately raise concern for a closer.

According to Baseball Savant, the underlying numbers paint a complicated picture.

What makes this more puzzling is how different the story looked not long ago. On paper, last season’s 4.37 ERA doesn’t stand out, but it doesn’t tell the full story. One disastrous stretch in May — where Hoffman posted a 13.50 ERA over 10 innings — skewed his numbers.

Outside of that month, he was dominant, pitching to a 2.79 ERA and looking like a reliable late-inning arm.

This season, however, the issues have been far more consistent — and far more concerning.

The biggest red flag is command. Hoffman is walking too many hitters, currently sitting at a 5.06 BB/9. That lack of control shows up in his pitch charts, where uncompetitive pitches have become a recurring problem. He’s constantly working from behind in counts, and at the major league level, that’s a dangerous way to live — especially in the ninth inning.

When hitters get ahead, they’re doing serious damage. Hoffman throws a first-pitch strike just 53% of the time, and the split is staggering. When he’s ahead 0–1, opponents are hitting just .160. But when he falls behind 1–0, that number jumps to .500. That gap highlights how important early count control is — and how often he’s failing to establish it.

The struggles don’t stop there. His splitter — his most-used pitch — is getting crushed, with opponents hitting .417 against it. His fastball has also been hit hard, with hitters slugging .786. Much of that damage comes in predictable situations, where Hoffman is forced into the zone after falling behind.

And yet, beneath all of this, the raw stuff is still elite. Hoffman ranks in the 99th percentile in strikeout rate and 100th percentile in whiff rate — second in the majors only behind Mason Miller with a 20.25 K/9 — along with a 96th percentile chase rate. The swing-and-miss ability hasn’t gone anywhere, which makes the struggles even more frustrating.

The fix isn’t complicated, but it is urgent. Hoffman needs to attack hitters earlier, establish the fastball in 0–0 counts, and use his slider as a finishing pitch — not a fallback. Most importantly, he has to limit the free passes.

Because right now, the results simply aren’t there.

Varland Is Forcing the Conversation

The Blue Jays acquired Varland at last season’s trade deadline, and at the time, the move didn’t generate much excitement. Many were hoping for a bigger name out of Minnesota, like Jhoan Duran. But since arriving in Toronto, Varland has quickly erased any doubt.

Since the trade, Varland has posted a 3.38 ERA over 34.2 innings, establishing himself as a reliable bullpen arm. This season, he’s taken it to another level. Through 13 innings, he has yet to allow an earned run, emerging as one of the most dominant relievers on the roster.

That stretch includes his first career save on April 21 against the Angels — a game where he was called upon after Hoffman couldn’t close it out.

Opponents are hitting just .190 against Varland this season, and his fastball has been a major reason why. The pitch has overpowered hitters, accounting for 11 of his 19 strikeouts. Even more impressive, he’s dominating without his best secondary pitch at full strength.

Varland’s knuckle curve has typically been his go-to off-speed pitch, especially last season when opponents hit just .210 against it. This year, hitters are batting .400 against it. While that number stands out, it’s not a major concern — much of the damage has come from a few misplaced pitches left in the zone.

Even without that pitch fully clicking, Varland continues to dominate. He ranks 14th in the league in K/9, reinforcing his ability to miss bats at a high level.

His Baseball Savant page backs it up — filled with elite metrics across the board. The only outlier is chase rate, which is slightly lower due to his aggressive approach. Varland attacks hitters with fastballs in the zone rather than relying on chase.

And that approach is working.

A Decision Is Coming

As the conversation around the ninth inning grows louder, the Blue Jays are clearly leaving the door open for change. Manager John Schneider didn’t exactly give a vote of confidence to Hoffman, saying, “We’ll re-evaluate everything with Jeff Hoffman, see how he’s doing. He’s going through it, obviously, a little bit.”

That doesn’t sound like a manager committing to his closer — it sounds like a team searching for answers.

Still, Blue Jays fans should take a step back. This isn’t a situation where Hoffman is about to be DFA’d. His stuff is still elite, and over the course of a long season, Toronto is going to need him.

But roles in baseball aren’t permanent — they’re earned.

Right now, Varland has earned the ninth inning. And if the Blue Jays are serious about winning, the decision in front of them isn’t complicated anymore.

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