How far can the Vikings go with Kyler Murray?

(Alli Rusco/Minnesota Vikings)

The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a disappointing 9–8 season with JJ McCarthy under center for the first time, and despite his positive record, the team felt the need to move in a more experienced direction.

The Vikings won 14 games in 2024 with veteran Sam Darnold and now look to make newly signed Kyler Murray their next resurrection project. With the roster they have, Minnesota certainly has the potential to return to that level after still managing nine wins with a first-time starter in 2025.

Kyler Murray’s career in Arizona could overall be viewed as a disappointment. As a former No. 1 overall pick, he has yet to record a playoff win. However, this would not be the first time a highly drafted quarterback left his original team without playoff success and ultimately turned his career around, even adding a Super Bowl to his resume.

Two quarterbacks that instantly come to mind are Rams Super Bowl champion and MVP Matthew Stafford and the most recent Super Bowl-winning quarterback, Sam Darnold. Both players did not have ideal starts to their careers, though in very different ways.

Looking at the History Books

Matthew Stafford never won a playoff game with the Detroit Lions after being drafted first overall in 2009. He went 0–3 in the postseason during his time in Detroit before ultimately being traded to the Los Angeles Rams for a haul of draft picks. Since the trade, Stafford has completely flipped the narrative of his career, going 7–3 in the playoffs with the Rams, including winning the Super Bowl in his first season in L.A. and earning MVP honors in his most recent season.

Sam Darnold’s story is a bit different. Darnold was drafted third overall by the New York Jets in 2018 and was soon seen as a major draft bust, bouncing around the league year after year between different quarterback rooms. He never started a playoff game until the 2024 season in Minnesota, where he led the team to a 14–3 record before being blown out in the playoffs by—ironically—Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Darnold was not brought back to Minnesota and instead signed with the Seattle Seahawks, where he went 14–3 and won the Super Bowl after—ironically again—beating Matthew Stafford in the NFC Championship game.

Now the question becomes: How far can Kyler Murray and the Minnesota Vikings go?

Just Another Day in the Office

This isn’t the Minnesota Vikings’ first rodeo when it comes to “mercenary” quarterbacks stepping in as a one-year starter. From Randall Cunningham to Brett Favre, Case Keenum to Sam Darnold, the Vikings have had their fair share of "second chance" or "leftovers" at quarterback that turned into magical seasons. Now, is Kyler Murray the next man up? Can he be the one to break the cycle of one-and-done? Can Kyler Murray bring the Minnesota Vikings their first Lombardi Trophy?

The difference between Murray and some of the other quarterbacks listed is his age. He’ll be just 29 years old heading into the 2026 season. Cunningham and Favre made their runs much later in their careers—at 35 and 40 years old, respectively. Case Keenum was also 29 during his NFC Championship run, but his level of starting experience didn’t compare to the others.

The closest comparison is Sam Darnold, who arrived in Minnesota at 27 years old with plenty of experience—some good, but mostly inconsistent. As we now know, Darnold went on to win a Super Bowl at 28… just not with the Vikings, but with the Seattle Seahawks.

So the question becomes: can Murray replicate that kind of turnaround with his experience and his time under Kevin O’Connell?

Overall, it’s fair to say Kyler Murray has more natural talent than Darnold, along with a greater ability to extend plays. The real question is whether the Vikings can put him in the right position to succeed while fully utilizing that talent. That’s what the Seahawks did with Darnold—and what the Vikings arguably failed to do before moving on from him.

Looking at the Numbers

Whether Kyler Murray can win the Vikings a Super Bowl is hard to predict, but the most important thing is that Minnesota gets better quarterback play overall this season.

Statistically, Vikings quarterbacks averaged 188.7 passing yards, 1.05 passing touchdowns, 1.24 interceptions, and 3.5 sacks taken per game. This includes JJ McCarthy, Carson Wentz, Max Brosmer, and even Cam Akers (who somehow actually helped improve those numbers…). As a group, they also completed just 61.6% of their passes.

Kyler Murray, in 2025, played only five games due to injury and a potential soft benching, but still averaged 192.4 passing yards, 1.2 passing touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions, and 3.2 sacks taken per game. Those numbers may not jump off the page, but they are still better overall—and more impressive when you consider the situations. The Vikings were just a half-game and consistent quarterback play away from the playoffs, while the Arizona Cardinals are picking third overall.

The last full season Murray played was in 2024, and despite not having significantly better weapons, he still put up 226.5 passing yards, 1.2 touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions, and just 1.8 sacks taken per game. He also completed 68.8% of his passes. That level of production shows he can be a consistent pocket passer who takes care of the ball and limits turnovers—something the Vikings’ quarterback room struggled with in 2025.

And this doesn’t even factor in Murray’s rushing ability. In 17 games in 2024, he ran for 572 yards and five touchdowns. That kind of dual-threat ability is an X-factor the Vikings haven’t had at quarterback in quite some time—if ever.

The Best Ability is Availability

While these stats are nice and all, Kyler Murray has to stay on the field in 2026. The Vikings were forced to start three different quarterbacks due to injury in 2025, including JJ McCarthy, who has missed over 70% of his potential starts in his two-year career.

Murray has also struggled with injuries in the past, missing over 25% of his games—and more than 40% over the last three seasons.

On the positive side, the Vikings’ offensive line has now been together in the system for a year and should benefit from a fully healthy offseason. Players like Christian Darrisaw and Will Fries entered last season coming off major injuries, but both are expected to be fully healthy and productive in 2026.

An offensive line featuring a fully healthy Darrisaw at left tackle, Donovan Jackson entering his second season, Blake Brandel with more experience at center, Will Fries now settled in and healthy, and Brian O’Neill returning at full strength has the potential to be very strong. Assuming the Vikings avoid the same injury issues they faced in 2025, this unit could be one of the better offensive lines in the NFL in 2026.

That would be huge for both Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy, who have not had consistent support from their offensive lines in recent years.

The Vikings Team Around Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray has never been on a team as talented as the Minnesota Vikings are right now. He’ll have weapons like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Aaron Jones, and Jordan Mason—along with likely adding a high draft pick at one of those skill positions.

Don’t get it wrong—Murray has had some solid weapons in the past, but nothing close to the level of this Vikings roster. And that’s without even mentioning the play-caller in Kevin O'Connell. O’Connell has been viewed as a “quarterback whisperer” for some time now and will look to help turn Murray’s career around as he enters the season as Minnesota’s expected starter.

Murray will also be supported by one of the best defenses in the NFL, featuring standout players like Andrew Van Ginkel, Jonathan Greenard, Jalen Redmond, Blake Cashman, and possibly Harrison Smith. All of it is led by defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who remains one of the brightest defensive minds in the league and is long overdue for another head coaching opportunity.

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